Case Study: Spotting Divergence on SET Index Names
A walkthrough of a July 2025 daily chart on a large-cap Thai bank stock — marking, false start, and the confirmation candle that satisfied two rules.
We anonymise ticker names in public write-ups but the mechanics are real. The daily chart showed a lower low in RSI while price held a horizontal support zone built over six weeks.
The first mistake several students made was entering on the divergence bar itself. Price had not yet broken the minor swing high between the two lows. We waited.
Confirmation arrived on a Wednesday session: a close above the intervening high with volume roughly thirty percent above the ten-day average. That satisfied two of our four rules.
Invalidation sat one tick below the support zone low. Target was the prior range high — not an arbitrary Fibonacci extension. The move reached target in eleven sessions.
Not every case resolves cleanly. We log the failures with equal detail because the habit of recording misses prevents repeating them.